rights
Analyst shares shocking effect of Graham Platner's exit on Dem chances to beat Susan Collins
By Molly Sprayregen at LGBTQ Nation
· July 15, 2026
· 1 min read
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten shared surprising data showing that Democrats have an even greater chance of ousting incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) now that Graham Platner is out of the race. Enten showed that on July 2, about a week before Platner dropped out and also before the sexual assa
Key takeaway Enten showed that on July 2, about a week before Platner dropped out and also before the sexual assault allegations against Platner were made public, Democrats had a 50 percent chance of winning the race.
Why this matters
The departure of Graham Platner from the Maine Senate race has significantly altered the electoral landscape, with Democrats now having a 63 percent chance of unseating Senator Susan Collins. This shift is largely due to Platner's underperformance in the state, where a generic Democrat leads a generic Republican by 12 points. Collins' own popularity has been waning, with a net favorability rating of -3, but Platner's rating was even lower at -8. The removal of Platner from the race allows Democrats to capitalize on the state's fundamentals, which favor their party. As the National LGBTQ Task Force continues to advocate for LGBTQ+ rights, the potential election of a Democrat in Maine could have implications for national LGBTQ+ policies. The Trevor Project's crisis line remains a vital resource for LGBTQ+ individuals, particularly in states like Maine where legal protections vary. With Platner out of the race, Democrats may be able to harness the state's demographic advantages to secure a crucial Senate seat.
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Category: rights ·
Published: July 15, 2026 ·
Source: LGBTQ Nation ·
Reading time: 1 min
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Frequently asked about this story
What is this story about? CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten shared surprising data showing that Democrats have an even greater chance of ousting incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) now that Graham Platner is out of the race. Enten showed that on July 2, about a week before Platner dropped out and also before the sexual assa
When was this published? This article was first published on July 15, 2026 by LGBTQ Nation and curated for LGBTQ News readers.
Who reported this story? This story was reported by Molly Sprayregen at LGBTQ Nation. To learn more about how LGBTQ News selects and reviews stories, see our editorial standards .
Where can I find related coverage? See more rights coverage from LGBTQ News, or browse our daily briefing and topic hubs .